FC Eindhoven 2-5 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.79
6+ Goals
13%
7.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.01
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.3
X/2
14%
6.53
X/X
13%
5.56
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
14%
4.03
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-2.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.39/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.09
-13% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.9 Crosses 15.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
1W-2D-3L
AWAY PSV II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.22 xG 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
344 Passes 367
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2023 PSV II PSV II 3-4 HT 1-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
19.05.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
28.10.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 2-2 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
15.04.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-3 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
23.08.2021 PSV II PSV II 3-2 HT 2-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
09.04.2021 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
2-5
AWAY PSV II
4.82 xG 2.13
43% Ball Possession 57%
31 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 3
277 Passes 425
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
53 Box Touches 26
42 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II cruised past FC Eindhoven 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; PSV II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 43% of the ball to PSV II's 57%, shots finished 31-16, expected goals 4.82 to 2.13 — on chances, FC Eindhoven could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.33 for PSV II.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs PSV II?

FC Eindhoven 2-5 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 40%, draw 25%, PSV II 35%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Eindhoven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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