Dordrecht 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.46
2-3 Goals
35%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.49
6+ Goals
14%
5.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.32
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.82
X/2
13%
8.45
X/X
11%
6.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.1
2/2
10%
5.46
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 12% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.1pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.87/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.44
+32% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
22.3 Crosses 10.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dordrecht
1W-1D-4L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.94 xG 1.77
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
350 Passes 373
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 0-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
22.01.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 5-1 HT 3-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
22.09.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
21.04.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
05.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
01.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dordrecht
1-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.55 xG 0.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
268 Passes 386
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dordrecht vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dordrecht and AZ Alkmaar II shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Dordrecht at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dordrecht had 43% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 57%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.55 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dordrecht and 2.17 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Dordrecht vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Dordrecht 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dordrecht vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dordrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Dordrecht 47%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar II 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dordrecht), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dordrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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