Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals
Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics
Mallorca nicked a narrow win over Athletic Bilbao 3-2. Level at 2-2 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
We leaned Athletic Bilbao at 43% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
The match data tells the story: possession split 51% to 49% in Mallorca's favour, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 2.79 to 2.08.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.50 a game for Mallorca against 1.33 for Athletic Bilbao.
Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Result & Final Score
Mallorca 3 - 2 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mallorca 26%, draw 31%, Athletic Bilbao 43%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.