Fermana 1-1 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.4
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.01
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.4pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fermana EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fermana
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sestri Levante
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
12.11.2023 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 3-0 HT 1-0 Fermana Fermana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fermana
1-1
AWAY Sestri Levante
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fermana vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fermana and Sestri Levante shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fermana had 66% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 34%, shots finished 18-11.

What was the final score of Fermana vs Sestri Levante?

Fermana 1-1 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fermana vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sestri Levante win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fermana 33%, draw 31%, Sestri Levante 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sestri Levante) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sestri Levante) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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