Orvietana Calcio 1-4 Poggibonsi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
3.5
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
24%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
Over
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Total Goals
0-1
40%
2-3
32%
4-5
19%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
25%
+16.4pp
35%
Draw
27%
+7.6pp
24%
Away Win
48%
-24.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orvietana Calcio The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Poggibonsi The Market 52%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
256 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Orvietana Calcio vs Poggibonsi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Poggibonsi ran out comfortable winners over Orvietana Calcio 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Orvietana Calcio at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Orvietana Calcio vs Poggibonsi?

Orvietana Calcio 1-4 Poggibonsi in the Italy - Serie D on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orvietana Calcio vs Poggibonsi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orvietana Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Orvietana Calcio 41%, draw 35%, Poggibonsi 24%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Orvietana Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTD More Italy - Serie D
17 Mar 2024
16:30 Calcio Certaldo vs Pistoiese Analysis →
16:30 Mezzolara vs Corticella Analysis →
16:30 CynthiAlbalonga vs Atletico Uri Analysis →
16:30 Tivoli vs Atletico Ascoli Analysis →
16:30 Bra vs Gozzano Analysis →
17:00 Martina Franca vs Team Altamura Analysis →