Los Angeles Galaxy 3-3 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.15
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.46
X/2
12%
9.69
X/X
6%
5.98
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2
12%
6.35
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.8pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+9.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.8pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -2%
1.94/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.62
-6% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.9 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy
0W-2D-0L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.84 xG 1.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
472 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.09.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-2 HT 0-2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
11.06.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 1-1 HT 0-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy
3-3
AWAY St. Louis City
2.53 xG 2.14
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
535 Passes 232
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 41
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles Galaxy and St. Louis City couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Los Angeles Galaxy at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Los Angeles Galaxy had 67% of the ball to St. Louis City's 33%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 2.53 to 2.14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.50 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City?

Los Angeles Galaxy 3-3 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles Galaxy 48%, draw 22%, St. Louis City 30%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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