Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 17 Mar 2025

📅17/03/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.3pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.52/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.42
+14% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
17.9 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
304 Passes 260
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.11.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 3-1 HT 1-1 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
31.10.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
28.09.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
31.03.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
02.09.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
04.03.2023 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-3 HT 1-2 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
2-1
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo La Guaira squeezed past Estudiantes De Merida 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Deportivo La Guaira as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Deportivo La Guaira had 71% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 29%, shots finished 14-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo La Guaira had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.33 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 17/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Guaira 46%, draw 26%, Estudiantes De Merida 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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