Gimcheon Sangmu 1-1 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 17 Mar 2026

📅17/03/2026 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
22.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.95
X/1
17%
4.02
X/2
8%
9.11
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
10%
7.97
2/X
6%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.39/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.33
-10% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.1 Crosses 13.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gwangju
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
392 Passes 349
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.07.2025 Gwangju Gwangju 1-1 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
05.05.2025 Gwangju Gwangju 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
16.03.2025 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 0-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
28.09.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
15.06.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
06.04.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-1 HT 1-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
1-1
AWAY Gwangju
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
335 Passes 356
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimcheon Sangmu and Gwangju shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gimcheon Sangmu at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gimcheon Sangmu had 49% of the ball to Gwangju's 51%, shots finished 17-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu and 0.83 for Gwangju.

What was the final score of Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju?

Gimcheon Sangmu 1-1 Gwangju in the South Kore - K League Classic on 17/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gimcheon Sangmu 52%, draw 26%, Gwangju 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) ✓ Under 2.5
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