V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 25% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 39%
+46% / +46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.77
+40% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +73%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
27.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
20.11.2021 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
26.06.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
14.10.2020 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
13.09.2020 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
41% Ball Possession 59%
3 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki edged past Jubilo Iwata 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day V-Varen Nagasaki made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 41% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 59%, shots finished 3-23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jubilo Iwata led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Jubilo Iwata?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - League Cup on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 35%, draw 27%, Jubilo Iwata 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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