Mirassol FC 4-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Apr 2025

Mirassol FC
4-1 HT 2-0
Gremio
📅17/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Mirassol FC vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
28%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
5.06
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.48 — our 37% vs market 34.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.4
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
18%
5.88
X/2
14%
5.44
X/X
20%
3.76
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
9%
3.91
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.2pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
28%
Away Win
36%
-7.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.1pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mirassol FC v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.78/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.46
-16% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 82%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
32.0 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Mirassol FC vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Gremio
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.71 xG 2.47
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 8
260 Passes 353
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2022 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 3-2 HT 2-2 Gremio Gremio BRK

Mirassol FC 4-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
4-1
AWAY Gremio
1.56 xG 0.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
312 Passes 468
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC cruised past Gremio 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 33% / 28%) promised a tight game; Mirassol FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 41% of the ball to Gremio's 59%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.56 to 0.83.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Gremio?

Mirassol FC 4-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 39%, draw 33%, Gremio 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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