Botafogo 2-2 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.48
Over 2.5
35%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.33
No
62%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
16%
6.12
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.54
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
24%
4.04
X/2
10%
8.89
X/X
15%
3.7
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
9%
8.33
2/X
5%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
64%
+0.8pp
35%
Over 2.5
36%
-0.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
39%
-1.2pp
62%
BTTS No
61%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
1.34/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.34
-4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.4 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.34 xG 1.31
42% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
301 Passes 450
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
26.09.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo LKU
19.09.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo LKU
25.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
19.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.04.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
2-2
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.51 xG 1.11
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
441 Passes 339
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
38 Box Touches 18
34 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Sao Paulo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 57% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 43%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 1.51 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Botafogo and 0.83 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?

Botafogo 2-2 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 49%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 23%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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