Vitoria 2-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.51
Over 2.5
45%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
5.63
6+ Goals
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.6
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
16%
4.96
X/2
6%
6.13
X/X
10%
3.66
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
18%
4.96
2/X
9%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
1.66/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.65
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
25.7 Crosses 17.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
2.08 xG 1.31
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
271 Passes 416
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.12.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 2-0 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
18.07.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-1 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
24.03.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRCDN
13.05.2022 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRK
21.04.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-1
AWAY Fortaleza
0.92 xG 1.06
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 Passes 523
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
20 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria nicked a narrow win over Fortaleza 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 40% of the ball to Fortaleza's 60%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.92 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Vitoria and 1.40 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Fortaleza?

Vitoria 2-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 43%, draw 26%, Fortaleza 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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