Katowice 3-2 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Apr 2026

📅17/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.56
No
39%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.0
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
10%
8.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.66
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
21%
4.92
X/2
11%
7.45
X/X
7%
5.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.8
2/2
14%
5.06
2/X
8%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.6pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.6pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 31%
+17% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.55/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.71
+19% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
23.7 Crosses 19.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Motor Lublin
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.70 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
377 Passes 297
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.10.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 2-5 HT 2-2 Katowice Katowice POL
24.02.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 3-2 HT 2-1 Katowice Katowice POL
16.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
19.02.2024 Katowice Katowice 2-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
06.08.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
19.05.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 2-1 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
3-2
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.89 xG 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
22 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
241 Passes 324
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
53 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice nicked a narrow win over Motor Lublin 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Katowice as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Katowice had 45% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 55%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 2.89 to 1.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Katowice's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Katowice and 1.33 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Motor Lublin?

Katowice 3-2 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Katowice 46%, draw 23%, Motor Lublin 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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