Legia Varşova 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Apr 2026

📅17/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
45%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
17.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.05
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
15%
3.86
X/2
7%
10.4
X/X
12%
4.83
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
6%
9.15
2/X
6%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +26%
1.96/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.61
+13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
22.9 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 1.10
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
383 Passes 318
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2025 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 HT 2-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
08.12.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
20.07.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
25.05.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
03.12.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
04.02.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-0
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.80 xG 0.46
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
296 Passes 151
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova edged past Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 62% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 38%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.80 to 0.46 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Legia Varşova's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Legia Varşova and 0.83 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Legia Varşova 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 57%, draw 23%, Zaglebie Lubin 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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