Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.5
Draw
18%
3.54
Away
54%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.2
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
8%
8.25
X/2
20%
4.48
X/X
6%
5.23
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
26%
2.44
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.7pp
18%
Draw
25%
-6.6pp
54%
Away Win
50%
+3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 55%
-12% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.38/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.39
-34% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
22.1 Crosses 21.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.84 xG 1.73
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 358
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-3 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
20.07.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
25.05.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
03.12.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
04.02.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
23.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
3-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.54 xG 0.97
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
231 Passes 504
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin saw off Legia Varşova 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 35% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 65%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.54 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 2.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Varşova?

Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 28%, draw 18%, Legia Varşova 54%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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