Lech Poznan 2-2 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.87
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.28
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
18%
4.69
X/2
8%
8.9
X/X
14%
6.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.85
2/2
12%
6.06
2/X
6%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.5pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.66/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.62
-10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
23.0 Crosses 16.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 1.65
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
371 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-3 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
25.08.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
07.04.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.02.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
01.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-0 HT 3-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-2
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.61 xG 1.74
66% Ball Possession 34%
26 Total Shots 16
12 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
425 Passes 198
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
37 Box Touches 25
35 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 66% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 34%, shots finished 26-16, expected goals 2.61 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.33 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Lech Poznan 2-2 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 49%, draw 27%, Pogon Szczecin 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lech Poznan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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