Eibar 1-0 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 17 May 2025

Eibar
1-0 HT 1-0
Burgos
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
15%
5.06
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.22 — our 40% vs market 37.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.74
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
14%
4.27
X/2
11%
7.93
X/X
13%
3.84
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
13%
7.03
2/X
9%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.0pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.31/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.25
+4% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.8 Crosses 15.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Burgos
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.87 xG 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
410 Passes 264
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
10.03.2024 Eibar Eibar 0-1 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
09.09.2023 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
11.03.2023 Eibar Eibar 1-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
08.12.2022 Burgos Burgos 1-2 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
27.02.2022 Eibar Eibar 2-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
1-0
AWAY Burgos
1.26 xG 0.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
360 Passes 374
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar nicked a narrow win over Burgos 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 30%) promised a tight game; Eibar found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Eibar had 49% of the ball to Burgos's 51%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 1.26 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Eibar and 0.67 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Burgos?

Eibar 1-0 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Eibar 40%, draw 29%, Burgos 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eibar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Eibar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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