NK Varazdin 2-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.5pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.6pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -18%
1.12/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.13
-29% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.5 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Osijek
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.23 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
288 Passes 326
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
15.12.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
29.09.2024 Osijek Osijek 2-1 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
15.03.2024 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
10.12.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
22.09.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-1
AWAY Osijek
0.53 xG 1.06
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
411 Passes 423
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin edged past Osijek 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 31% — and on the day NK Varazdin made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 50% of the ball to Osijek's 50%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.53 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Osijek.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.83 for Osijek.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Osijek?

NK Varazdin 2-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 38%, draw 31%, Osijek 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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