Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
12.23
Draw
24%
5.71
Away
56%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.73
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
21%
2.68
6+ Goals
9%
6.94
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.73 — our 28% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
22%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
6%
+14.0pp
24%
Draw
15%
+9.5pp
56%
Away Win
80%
-23.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.0pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 84%
+19% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -21%
1.41/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.65
+102% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +8%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
235 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 81%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
13.4 Crosses 23.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.99 xG 2.15
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
228 Passes 370
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
14.12.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 HT 3-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
28.09.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
21.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
10.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
23.01.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.37 xG 1.93
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
247 Passes 445
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 34
6 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb and Dinamo Zagreb couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dinamo Zagreb at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 37% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 63%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 0.37 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.00 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 20%, draw 24%, Dinamo Zagreb 56%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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