AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-3
HT 0-1
NAC Breda
HOK
0-3
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
5-0
HT 3-0
NAC Breda
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
This one beat our numbers. AZ Alkmaar carried 67% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 54% of the ball to NAC Breda's 46%, shots finished 16-17.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.83 for NAC Breda.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 67%, draw 19%, NAC Breda 14%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.