Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 May 2026

Sparta Rotterdam
2-3 HT 0-1
Excelsior
📅17/05/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.29
Over Pick
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
25%
4.48
2-3
36%
1.87
4-5
26%
2.75
6+
13%
7.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.69
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
17%
5.02
X/2
9%
7.28
X/X
11%
5.62
2/1 ✗
8%
21.3
2/2
12%
4.76
2/X
5%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.3 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+1.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.3pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sparta Rotterdam v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.73/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/2.19
+6% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
20.4 Crosses 18.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Excelsior
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.73 xG 1.27
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
343 Passes 336
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.09.2025 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
17.02.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 HT 2-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
01.10.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
05.03.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
14.01.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
21.01.2018 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 HT 2-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL

Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
2-3
AWAY Excelsior
1.48 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
339 Passes 300
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior squeezed past Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Rotterdam at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 53% of the ball to Excelsior's 47%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.48 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.33 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?

Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 49%, draw 24%, Excelsior 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
17 May 2026
15:30 PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Analysis →
15:30 AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Analysis →
15:30 Heerenveen vs Ajax Analysis →
15:30 PSV Eindhoven vs Twente Analysis →
15:30 Volendam vs Telstar Analysis →
15:30 Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Analysis →