Portimonense 1-0 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
15.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.1pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 39%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.49/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.31
+24% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.0 Crosses 18.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Farense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.39 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
256 Passes 252
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.01.2026 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
18.05.2024 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 0-2 Portimonense Portimonense POR
12.01.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
05.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
04.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
1-0
AWAY Farense
2.27 xG 0.89
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
178 Passes 223
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense edged past Farense 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Portimonense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Portimonense had 46% of the ball to Farense's 54%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 2.27 to 0.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Portimonense's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Portimonense and 0.33 for Farense.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Farense?

Portimonense 1-0 Farense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 38%, draw 23%, Farense 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Farense) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
17 May 2026
17:30 Uniao De Leiria vs CD Feirense Analysis →
20:00 Leixoes vs Lusitania FC Lourosa Analysis →
22:30 Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel Analysis →