Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paços De Ferreira v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-2
HT 1-0
Paços De Ferreira
PORLC
Paços De Ferreira 2-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Paços De Ferreira squeezed past Penafiel 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Paços De Ferreira as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 43% of the ball to Penafiel's 57%, shots finished 28-18, expected goals 3.01 to 1.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paços De Ferreira's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.33 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Paços De Ferreira 2-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 47%, draw 22%, Penafiel 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paços De Ferreira), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.