Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
47%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
9%
7.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 28% vs market 17.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
4.31
1/2
8%
22.65
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
12%
6.81
X/2
14%
5.4
X/X
11%
5.28
2/1
5%
27.5
2/2
26%
2.99
2/X
9%
11.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
32%
-6.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
47%
Away Win
42%
+4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.27/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.09
-14% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 82%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
21.1 Crosses 21.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Galatasaray
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.34 xG 1.97
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
203 Passes 381
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2025 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-0 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
02.03.2025 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-3 HT 0-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
28.09.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-3 HT 3-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
17.03.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-4 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
03.11.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.03.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
1-0
AWAY Galatasaray
1.13 xG 0.52
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
212 Passes 609
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
8 Box Touches 18
5 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa nicked a narrow win over Galatasaray 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Galatasaray at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 29% of the ball to Galatasaray's 71%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 1.13 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kasımpaşa and 2.67 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?

Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated an Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 26%, draw 27%, Galatasaray 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Galatasaray), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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