Green Gully 3-1 Dandenong Thunder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 17 Jul 2026

📅17/07/2026 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.92
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+3.4pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.5pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Green Gully EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 32%
-18% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.03/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.40
-27% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.9 Crosses 18.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Green Gully
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Dandenong Thunder
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.04.2026 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
16.05.2025 Green Gully Green Gully 3-1 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
08.02.2025 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 2-1 HT 1-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
29.06.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
22.03.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 1-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
29.07.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Green Gully saw off Dandenong Thunder 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Green Gully as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dandenong Thunder led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Green Gully and 1.17 for Dandenong Thunder.

What was the final score of Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?

Green Gully 3-1 Dandenong Thunder in the Australia - National Premier League on 17/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?

Before kick-off our model rated a Green Gully win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Green Gully 51%, draw 21%, Dandenong Thunder 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Green Gully), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Green Gully) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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