Vitoria 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Jul 2026

📅17/07/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
17.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.62
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1 EV+ ✓
21%
5.4
X/2
12%
5.87
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
14%
4.12
2/X
10%
13.0
Value flag · X/1 at 5.4 — our 21% vs market 14.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
38%
+4.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +24%
1.52/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.58
-1% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 81%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.9 Crosses 15.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.29 xG 1.28
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
228 Passes 430
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 4-3 HT 1-2 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.05.2025 Vitoria Vitoria 2-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
02.09.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
13.05.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.11.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-3 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
08.08.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
1-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.57 xG 0.63
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
297 Passes 324
19 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 15
FAQ Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Vitoria edged past Vasco da Gama 1-0 in the Brazil - Serie A on 17 Jul 2026. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.57 to 0.63.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama lead the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria and 1.50 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?

Vitoria 1-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 43%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✗ BTTS Yes
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