Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vasco da Gama v Vitoria — Team-Based Signals
Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Vitoria
BR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Vasco da Gama
BR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
Vasco da Gama 4-3 Vitoria — Actual Match Statistics
Vasco da Gama edged past Vitoria 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Vasco da Gama had 74% of the ball to Vitoria's 26%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 3.18 to 1.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vasco da Gama's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.17 for Vitoria.
What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria?
Vasco da Gama 4-3 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 56%, draw 22%, Vitoria 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.