Vasco da Gama 4-3 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.17
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
18%
4.09
X/2
9%
9.9
X/X
9%
4.82
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
24.85
2/2
9%
8.38
2/X
5%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
-0.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.9pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 22%
-11% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.54/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.01
+1% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
27.2 Crosses 18.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vitoria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.29
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
400 Passes 266
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2025 Vitoria Vitoria 2-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
02.09.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
13.05.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.11.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-3 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
08.08.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
10.09.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
4-3
AWAY Vitoria
3.18 xG 1.34
74% Ball Possession 26%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
498 Passes 140
89% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 6
34 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama edged past Vitoria 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 74% of the ball to Vitoria's 26%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 3.18 to 1.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vasco da Gama's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.17 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria?

Vasco da Gama 4-3 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 56%, draw 22%, Vitoria 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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