Fluminense 3-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
13%
5.48
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.7
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
21%
4.18
X/2
8%
8.04
X/X
11%
3.68
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
12%
7.29
2/X
10%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.0pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.4pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.9pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.39/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.19
+4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 78%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.9 Crosses 17.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 1.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
309 Passes 390
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.05.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-2 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
26.09.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense LKU
19.09.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
25.08.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.05.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
29.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
3-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.68 xG 0.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
398 Passes 527
89% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 8
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense cruised past Atletico Mineiro 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (61%) landed while under 2.5 goals (67%) missed.

On the day, Fluminense had 44% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 56%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.68 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 1.50 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Fluminense 3-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 49%, draw 27%, Atletico Mineiro 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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