Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bragantino v Gremio — Team-Based Signals
Bragantino vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Gremio
BR1
3-3
HT 1-1
Bragantino
BR1
3-0
HT 3-0
Bragantino
BR1
Bragantino 1-0 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics
Bragantino squeezed past Gremio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Bragantino had 58% of the ball to Gremio's 42%, shots finished 28-5, expected goals 3.08 to 0.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bragantino's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bragantino had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bragantino and 1.50 for Gremio.
What was the final score of Bragantino vs Gremio?
Bragantino 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Gremio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 48%, draw 29%, Gremio 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.