Bragantino 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.89
6+ Goals
11%
17.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 31% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.58
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
17%
4.44
X/2
9%
8.12
X/X
17%
4.4
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
8%
6.55
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.58/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.56
+11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
23.2 Crosses 14.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Gremio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.31 xG 1.34
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
367 Passes 279
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
15.09.2024 Bragantino 2-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
01.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-1 Bragantino BR1
15.09.2023 Bragantino 2-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
08.05.2023 Gremio Gremio 3-3 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
17.11.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 3-0 Bragantino BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-0
AWAY Gremio
3.08 xG 0.31
58% Ball Possession 42%
28 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
457 Passes 308
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 6
38 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino squeezed past Gremio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bragantino had 58% of the ball to Gremio's 42%, shots finished 28-5, expected goals 3.08 to 0.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bragantino's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bragantino had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bragantino and 1.50 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Gremio?

Bragantino 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 48%, draw 29%, Gremio 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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