Carlisle United 1-0 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Aug 2024

Carlisle United
1-0 HT 1-0
Barrow
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Barrow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.49
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
13%
5.19
X/2
12%
5.74
X/X
14%
4.53
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
18%
4.01
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Barrow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.28/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.38
+1% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 61%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.9 Crosses 20.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Carlisle United vs Barrow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Barrow
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 0.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
188 Passes 188
58% Pass Accuracy 58%
19 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.04.2023 Barrow Barrow 0-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
31.01.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 5-1 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
18.10.2022 Barrow Barrow 2-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
19.03.2022 Barrow Barrow 1-2 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
13.11.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
10.04.2021 Barrow Barrow 2-2 HT 2-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Carlisle United 1-0 Barrow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
1-0
AWAY Barrow
0.77 xG 0.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 4
150 Passes 253
59% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 28
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United edged past Barrow 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Carlisle United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 42% of the ball to Barrow's 58%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.77 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Carlisle United and 1.00 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Barrow?

Carlisle United 1-0 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 38%, draw 27%, Barrow 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carlisle United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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