Morecambe 0-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
38%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.38
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
10%
14.25
X/1
9%
7.14
X/2
16%
4.4
X/X
10%
4.67
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.74
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-8.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 50%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.37/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.76
+12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -53%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
292 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 71%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
17.2 Crosses 24.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Gillingham
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.39 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
322 Passes 209
76% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 2-3 HT 1-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
16.09.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 2-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
12.02.2022 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
21.08.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
16.03.2013 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
17.11.2012 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
0-1
AWAY Gillingham
0.62 xG 1.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
258 Passes 295
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Morecambe 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Gillingham made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Morecambe had 49% of the ball to Gillingham's 51%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.62 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Morecambe and 1.83 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Gillingham?

Morecambe 0-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 35%, draw 27%, Gillingham 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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