Grimsby Town 3-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Aug 2024

Grimsby Town
3-2 HT 1-0
Cheltenham Town
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Grimsby Town vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 30% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.3
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
12%
12.95
X/1
13%
5.05
X/2
16%
6.12
X/X
9%
4.42
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
12%
4.33
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Grimsby Town v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.32/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.12
-16% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
226 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 69%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.1 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3

Grimsby Town vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
232 Passes 283
65% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
05.04.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
13.10.2020 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-3 HT 1-2 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
26.11.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
16.02.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
08.12.2018 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
03.02.2018 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2

Grimsby Town 3-2 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
3-2
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.34 xG 0.70
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
204 Passes 233
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town edged past Cheltenham Town 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Grimsby Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 47% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 53%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.34 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Grimsby Town and 0.83 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Cheltenham Town?

Grimsby Town 3-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 38%, draw 27%, Cheltenham Town 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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