Bristol City 4-3 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.48
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.81
6+ Goals
11%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
18%
4.29
X/2
7%
7.13
X/X
13%
3.89
2/1
10%
30.0
2/2
17%
5.89
2/X
6%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.30/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.24
-11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +28%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
340 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 68%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.4 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Millwall
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.19
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
326 Passes 278
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 0-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
12.08.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
29.12.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
15.10.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
02.01.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 1-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
29.09.2021 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
4-3
AWAY Millwall
2.74 xG 2.22
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
424 Passes 217
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City squeezed past Millwall 4-3. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bristol City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bristol City had 61% of the ball to Millwall's 39%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 2.74 to 2.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bristol City and 1.00 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Millwall?

Bristol City 4-3 Millwall in the England - Championship on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 41%, draw 27%, Millwall 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bristol City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bristol City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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