Örebro 4-1 Gefle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 25% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.81
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.1
X/1
22%
3.72
X/2
7%
12.55
X/X
14%
6.5
2/1
7%
21.0
2/2
7%
9.43
2/X
5%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-11.1pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.0pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Örebro EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Gefle EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.91/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.97
+4% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
442 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Örebro
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gefle
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Gefle Gefle 3-1 HT 1-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇ2
03.03.2024 Gefle Gefle 1-2 HT 1-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇK
19.08.2023 Gefle Gefle 2-1 HT 0-1 Örebro Örebro İSÇ2
04.06.2023 Örebro Örebro 2-0 HT 0-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
26.09.2016 Örebro Örebro 2-2 HT 2-1 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
19.05.2016 Gefle Gefle 0-4 HT 0-1 Örebro Örebro İSÇ
POST-MATCH Örebro vs Gefle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Örebro cruised past Gefle 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Örebro as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Örebro had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Örebro and 1.33 for Gefle.

What was the final score of Örebro vs Gefle?

Örebro 4-1 Gefle in the Sweden - Superettan on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Örebro vs Gefle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Örebro win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Örebro 52%, draw 26%, Gefle 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Örebro), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Örebro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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