Başakşehir FK 1-1 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 17 Aug 2025

Başakşehir FK
1-1 HT 1-0
Kayserispor
📅17/08/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2025/2026

Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.26 — our 26% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
18%
4.42
X/2
7%
8.27
X/X
11%
4.94
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.8
2/2
13%
6.32
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.8 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
51%
+1.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.2pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Başakşehir FK v Kayserispor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.55/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.54
+18% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
17.0 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Kayserispor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.18
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
379 Passes 286
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.03.2025 Kayserispor Kayserispor 3-1 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
05.10.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
19.02.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-3 HT 0-2 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
02.10.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
02.02.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
21.08.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL

Başakşehir FK 1-1 Kayserispor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
1-1
AWAY Kayserispor
0.81 xG 0.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
418 Passes 285
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK and Kayserispor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Başakşehir FK at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 57% of the ball to Kayserispor's 43%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.81 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Başakşehir FK and 1.33 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor?

Başakşehir FK 1-1 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 52%, draw 23%, Kayserispor 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Başakşehir FK), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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