Nacional de Football vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional de Football v Progreso — Team-Based Signals
Nacional de Football vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Progreso
URU
1-3
HT 0-2
Nacional de Football
URU
Nacional de Football 3-1 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional de Football beat Progreso 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.
On the day, Nacional de Football had 59% of the ball to Progreso's 41%, shots finished 10-7.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.50 for Progreso.
What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Progreso?
Nacional de Football 3-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Progreso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 66%, draw 17%, Progreso 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.