Vitoria 2-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Oct 2025

Vitoria
2-1 HT 1-1
Bahia
📅17/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
5.08
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.99
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.7
X/1
14%
5.41
X/2
8%
5.71
X/X
12%
3.61
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
16%
4.34
2/X
5%
13.85
Value flag · 1/X at 13.7 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
36%
+5.8pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.52/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.61
+1% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
24.7 Crosses 17.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vitoria vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Bahia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 1.15
46% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 388
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.05.2025 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
21.04.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
05.03.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BRCDN
29.01.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRB1
03.02.2022 Vitoria Vitoria 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRB1

Vitoria 2-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-1
AWAY Bahia
2.42 xG 0.98
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
165 Passes 401
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 16
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria edged past Bahia 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vitoria as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 34% of the ball to Bahia's 66%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 2.42 to 0.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vitoria and 1.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Bahia?

Vitoria 2-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 42%, draw 27%, Bahia 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
17 Oct 2025
00:00 Gremio vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
03:30 Fluminense vs Juventude Analysis →