Vitoria 2-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.13
6+ Goals
10%
19.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.71
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
11%
6.27
X/2
10%
4.79
X/X
14%
4.17
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.22
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 45%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.09/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.16
+8% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
23.5 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Bahia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.59 xG 2.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
241 Passes 231
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
10 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.03.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BRCDN
29.01.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRB1
03.02.2022 Vitoria Vitoria 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRB1
18.03.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRB1
13.03.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRCDN
11.11.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-2
AWAY Bahia
1.69 xG 2.14
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
308 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria and Bahia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 42% of the ball to Bahia's 58%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.69 to 2.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vitoria and 0.83 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Bahia?

Vitoria 2-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 34%, draw 27%, Bahia 40%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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