Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Internacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.54
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.65
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.8
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
12%
4.16
X/2
9%
7.12
X/X
16%
4.11
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
13%
5.91
2/X
5%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Internacional EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.61/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.50
-1% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
22.7 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Internacional
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
353 Passes 326
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 1-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
11.05.2023 Internacional Internacional 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
06.11.2022 Internacional Internacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
16.07.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-0 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
14.11.2021 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
26.07.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 2-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-0
AWAY Internacional
0.85 xG 1.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
275 Passes 352
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense nicked a narrow win over Internacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 46% of the ball to Internacional's 54%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 0.85 to 1.60 — the balance of chances actually favoured Internacional.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.00 for Internacional.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?

Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Internacional in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 44%, draw 29%, Internacional 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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