Bragantino 1-0 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.75
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.24
6+ Goals
8%
21.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 33% vs market 30.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.17
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
11%
6.27
X/X
11%
4.18
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
10%
4.81
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.8pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.28/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.26
+21% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
19.6 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Corinthians
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.10 xG 0.74
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 Passes 296
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
02.07.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-1 Bragantino BR1
15.01.2023 Bragantino 1-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
30.08.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
09.05.2022 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
27.02.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-0
AWAY Corinthians
0.45 xG 1.20
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
167 Passes 397
61% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino nicked a narrow win over Corinthians 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bragantino had 35% of the ball to Corinthians's 65%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.45 to 1.20 — on chances, Corinthians could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bragantino and 0.50 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Corinthians?

Bragantino 1-0 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 44%, draw 27%, Corinthians 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
21 Apr 2024
00:30 Gremio vs Cuiaba Analysis →
03:00 Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
22:00 Palmeiras vs Flamengo Analysis →
22:00 Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional Analysis →
22:00 Vitoria vs Bahia Analysis →