Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

Atletico Mineiro
3-0 HT 3-0
Cruzeiro
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.4
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
4.99
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.4 — our 39% vs market 35.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.75
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
13%
4.0
X/2
7%
7.23
X/X
16%
4.04
2/1
10%
29.5
2/2
15%
6.22
2/X
9%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-9.2pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.8pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Mineiro v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +20%
1.57/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.19
+16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
21.2 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
247 Passes 334
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
04.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
14.02.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRM1
02.04.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BRM1
07.03.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BRMI1
11.04.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRM1

Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
3-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.13 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
495 Passes 379
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro ran out comfortable winners over Cruzeiro 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 56% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 44%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.13 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.83 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 41%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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