Gremio 1-0 Cuiaba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.92
6+ Goals
10%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.05
X/1
15%
3.71
X/2
7%
9.69
X/X
10%
4.06
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
14%
8.66
2/X
8%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
55%
-7.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.4pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +33%
1.59/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.13
+5% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +102%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
19.2 Crosses 18.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cuiaba
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.58 xG 0.80
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
414 Passes 348
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
01.05.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
07.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
19.08.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
18.11.2020 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 2-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BRK
12.11.2020 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-2 HT 1-2 Gremio Gremio BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-0
AWAY Cuiaba
0.63 xG 1.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
473 Passes 323
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Cuiaba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Cuiaba 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Gremio had 57% of the ball to Cuiaba's 43%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.63 to 1.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cuiaba.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gremio and 0.67 for Cuiaba.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Cuiaba?

Gremio 1-0 Cuiaba in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Cuiaba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gremio 47%, draw 26%, Cuiaba 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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