Troyes 1-0 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.21
6+ Goals
10%
21.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 33% vs market 31.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.44
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
17%
4.14
X/2
7%
8.48
X/X
15%
4.42
2/1
12%
26.5
2/2
7%
7.26
2/X
6%
16.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
50%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Troyes EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.38/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.22
+25% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
18.6 Crosses 14.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Troyes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bastia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.48
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
340 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2025 Troyes Troyes 2-0 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
13.09.2024 Bastia Bastia 0-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
09.03.2024 Troyes Troyes 2-0 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
26.08.2023 Bastia Bastia 3-2 HT 0-2 Troyes Troyes FR2
06.02.2016 Bastia Bastia 2-0 HT 1-0 Troyes Troyes FR1
12.12.2015 Troyes Troyes 1-1 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Troyes
1-0
AWAY Bastia
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Troyes vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Troyes squeezed past Bastia 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Troyes as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Troyes had 37% of the ball to Bastia's 63%, shots finished 11-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Troyes and 1.00 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Troyes vs Bastia?

Troyes 1-0 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Troyes vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Troyes win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Troyes 53%, draw 26%, Bastia 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Troyes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Troyes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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