Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 17 Nov 2025

📅17/11/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
47%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
47%
Away Win
48%
-0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 52%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +13%
1.60/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.90
+57% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.09.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
11.09.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URUK
19.06.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
21.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-3 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
10.11.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.05.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1-2
AWAY CA Penarol
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 10
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol squeezed past Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) had 46% of the ball to CA Penarol's 54%, shots finished 8-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) and 1.67 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs CA Penarol?

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 26%, draw 27%, CA Penarol 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ BTTS Yes
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