Atletico Baleares 2-3 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 17 Dec 2025

📅17/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
9.57
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
64%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
Over 2.5
51%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
27%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
7%
+8.3pp
20%
Draw
14%
+6.3pp
64%
Away Win
79%
-14.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Baleares EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 84%
+77% / +77% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
0.58/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/0.63
+72% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +27%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
269 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 82%
7.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.7
10.4 Crosses 21.5
0.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Baleares
2-3
AWAY Atletico Madrid
3.57 xG 1.35
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
318 Passes 449
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid squeezed past Atletico Baleares 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Atletico Baleares had 43% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 57%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 3.57 to 1.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Baleares.

What was the final score of Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Baleares 2-3 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 17/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Atletico Baleares 16%, draw 20%, Atletico Madrid 64%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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