Luzern 1-2 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 17 Dec 2025

Luzern
1-2 HT 0-0
Basel
📅17/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
49%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.43
Over 2.5
64%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.49
No
37%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
29%
2.67
6+ Goals
14%
6.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.53
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
20.1
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
9%
8.37
X/2
17%
4.87
X/X
8%
6.26
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
18%
2.42
2/X
6%
13.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.1 — our 13% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+4.9pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.0pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-1.9pp
36%
Under 2.5
38%
-1.6pp
64%
Over 2.5
62%
+1.6pp
63%
BTTS Yes
63%
+0.0pp
37%
BTTS No
37%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 55%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.24/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.53
+5% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
17.8 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Basel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.54
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
290 Passes 391
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2025 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
24.05.2025 Basel Basel 4-0 HT 2-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.03.2025 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
06.02.2025 Basel Basel 2-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
29.09.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
05.05.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-2
AWAY Basel
1.61 xG 2.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
22 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 6
278 Passes 389
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
41 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel nicked a narrow win over Luzern 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, Luzern had 45% of the ball to Basel's 55%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.61 to 2.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Luzern and 1.50 for Basel.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Basel?

Luzern 1-2 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 17/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Luzern 31%, draw 20%, Basel 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
17 Dec 2025
22:30 Zürich vs Lugano Analysis →
22:30 Young Boys vs Grasshoppers Analysis →