Basel 4-0 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 24 May 2025

Basel
4-0 HT 2-0
Luzern
📅24/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.17
Over 2.5
67%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.33
No
39%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
-0.5pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.7pp
33%
Under 2.5
28%
+4.9pp
67%
Over 2.5
72%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
71%
-9.9pp
39%
BTTS No
29%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.96/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.50
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.3 Crosses 15.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Luzern
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.31 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
366 Passes 312
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
06.02.2025 Basel Basel 2-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
29.09.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
05.05.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
21.04.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
17.12.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
4-0
AWAY Luzern
1.67 xG 0.69
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
368 Passes 274
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Basel vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel swept aside Luzern 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (67%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, Basel had 56% of the ball to Luzern's 44%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.67 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Basel and 0.83 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Basel vs Luzern?

Basel 4-0 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Basel 52%, draw 21%, Luzern 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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