Farnborough 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.03
Over 2.5
42%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.73
No
59%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.89
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 33% vs market 20.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
45%
+12.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
55%
-12.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
54%
-13.2pp
59%
BTTS No
46%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farnborough EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -18%
1.94/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.82
+9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farnborough
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 3-3 HT 3-2 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
23.01.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
15.08.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 2-1 HT 1-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
31.01.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 1-2 HT 0-2 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
06.08.2022 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farnborough
0-1
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farnborough vs Hemel Hempstead Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town nicked a narrow win over Farnborough 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Farnborough at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Farnborough had 52% of the ball to Hemel Hempstead Town's 48%, shots finished 10-5.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Hemel Hempstead Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Farnborough and 1.80 for Hemel Hempstead Town.

What was the final score of Farnborough vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Farnborough 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town in the England - Conference on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farnborough vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Farnborough 53%, draw 25%, Hemel Hempstead Town 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Farnborough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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