Hemel Hempstead Town 3-3 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
13%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 26% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 36%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.35/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.59
-4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Farnborough
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.01.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
15.08.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 2-1 HT 1-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
31.01.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 1-2 HT 0-2 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
06.08.2022 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
3-3
AWAY Farnborough
40% Ball Possession 60%
20 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town and Farnborough shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 40% of the ball to Farnborough's 60%, shots finished 20-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hemel Hempstead Town had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.00 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Farnborough?

Hemel Hempstead Town 3-3 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hemel Hempstead Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 38%, draw 29%, Farnborough 33%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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