Lens 1-2 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 18 Jan 2025

Lens
1-2 HT 1-0
PSG
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.55
2-3 Goals
33%
1.89
4-5 Goals
29%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
7.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.6
1/2 EV+ ✓
11%
20.8
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
7%
8.23
X/2
13%
4.82
X/X
12%
5.66
2/1
5%
32.5
2/2
22%
2.45
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.8 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-3.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 54%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +17%
1.66/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.45
-7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +6%
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
299 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 499 · 87%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
19.6 Crosses 12.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
1W-1D-4L
AWAY PSG
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.31 xG 1.77
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
295 Passes 629
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
20 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
22.12.2024 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FRK
02.11.2024 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
14.01.2024 Lens Lens 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
26.08.2023 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
15.04.2023 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 3-0 Lens Lens FR1
01.01.2023 Lens Lens 3-1 HT 2-1 PSG PSG FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
1-2
AWAY PSG
0.72 xG 1.23
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 1
254 Passes 632
77% Pass Accuracy 92%
23 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lens vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG squeezed past Lens 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lens had 33% of the ball to PSG's 67%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.72 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lens and 1.83 for PSG.

What was the final score of Lens vs PSG?

Lens 1-2 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lens 30%, draw 24%, PSG 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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